It is no secret that much of the United States experienced more precipitation in 2018 than in a typical year. In fact, many sawmills and pallet operations saw a record year or close to record precipitation levels. Looking back on 2019, conditions typically returned closer to normal precipitation levels.
There is no doubt that undesirable weather patterns affect the pallet industry. The logging sector is impacted by weather that is less than beautiful, which can reduce the flow of logs coming into the sawmills. Unheated sawmills and production spaces can have a negative impact on production. Moisture in packs of green lumber and cants can make cutting wood into desirable dimensions difficult. Temperatures in dry kilns are dampened when cold wood is introduced. Frozen and cold lumber cause additional problems when processing packs of lumber into pallet stock. Machinery breakdowns are more common when cutting cold or frozen wood into pallet lumber.
Standing timber supplies can be definitely impacted by a variety of weather conditions. Wildfires, particularly in the West, can sweep through timber stands. While burned trees may often be only charred on the outside, burned logs make sawing difficult and reduce both the quality and quantity of lumber from burned logs. Insect infested trees reduce both the quantity and quality as well. Fires and insect infestation are both impacted by weather patterns. High winds, which are a part of weather conditions, impact both wildfires and blown down trees.
Higher levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) add to higher temperatures that impact both the harvesting of trees and the quality of material cut.
Lumber is a commodity with prices rising and falling according to a variety of conditions from weather to political, insects, and economic conditions. We would have to go back about 20 years to see an economy that is humming along as nicely as it has over the last two years. North American lumber production has grown steadily since 2009 because of increasing housing demand and other active lumber markets, including pallets.
Given the macro weather and economic factors described above, how can improved forecasting help improve lumber supply management? One hot area to keep in mind when it comes to the timber market and weather is wildfire. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Montana provides regular wildfire forecasts and analysis. From detailed reports on current wildfires to assessment to fuel loads, the NIFC helps land managers be aware of fire dangers. Wildfires can have significant impact on available timber resources if large swaths of land are consumed or are at least put out of commission for a while. You can get the latest on the national fire scene at https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_main.html. Some state or regional fire authorities also provide assessments, such as Cal Fire.
During the past two years, western wildfires have cost more than $40 billion in damage. Hurricanes are dumping more rainfall in the past and heat waves are becoming more intense and frequent.
One way that weather has changed in just over a decade is a longer fire season due to more concentrated rainfall. “Just a decade ago, it was unimaginable that we’d be talking about fire weather at Thanksgiving.” commented, Jeff Mount, a water expert at the Public Policy Institute of California. He said in a recent Sacramento Bee article, “But this is part of this longer trend we’ve seen in the last 20 years… of basically us compressing our precipitation down into a few months.”
So, what data is available when it comes to long-term weather forecasts? The National Weather Service publishes long-range forecasts, el Nino status updates and drought reports. The furthest it projects is 90 days ahead (www.weather.gov/phi/longrange). Most of this data is limited in scope and provides basic ranges on things, such as temperature and precipitation amounts.
In a Forbes magazine article, weather writer – Dennis Mersereau outlined the dangers of long-range forecasting. He wrote, “Any forecast that promises to predict specific weather conditions more than a week or two in advance is steering you down a lonely path of disappointment.”
Most meteorologists suggest that the outer limit for specific weather forecasting – predicting highs and lows, precipitation types and amounts – is around seven to ten days in calm conditions and less than that when active weather is approaching. Most real long-term predictions revolve around broad patterns and temperature ranges.
AccuWeather launched 45-day and 90-day forecasts earlier this decade – but these are just for spotting trends. Mersereau criticized these predictions though for giving too precise details, such as wind speeds and temperatures, so that users might easily confuse these forecasts for more accurate ones covering approaching weather in only a few days.
A good example of long-range forecasting done right, according to Mersereau, is the NOAA Climate Prediction Center which only tells the odds that a certain area will see above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.
Weather forecasting is becoming a big business. Private weather forecasting is a $7 billion industry and growing, according to a 2017 study by the National Weather Service. There are a number of new private weather forecasting services using different approaches. Established players include: AccuWeather, Earth Networks, and Weather Co. New upstarts are making inroads using satellites, supercomputers, data analytics, artificial intelligence and other developing technologies. Some offer tailored services based on government data. Some of the new players are Climate Corp. (computer modeling tool focuses on farmers), Spire (uses tiny satellites to track weather developments), and ClimaCell (uses data from cell phone towers and other unconventional sources).
Mersereau’s rule of thumb is “When you see a long-range weather prediction that looks like it could pass for tomorrow’s weather forecast rather than a general trend weeks or months away, treat it with a healthy dose of skepticism.”
