Call it yet another example of that Silicon Valley “D” word. Disruptive. The self-driving truck has been identified as one of hottest new supply chain opportunities, one that is being pursued by the likes of Waymo (Google), Uber, and others.
Driverless trucks have the potential to significantly reduce trucking costs and CO2 emissions while improving highway safety. On the other hand, the required technologies are still very expensive, and successful adoption could put the jobs of 1.7 million U.S. truck drivers on the line. A recent McKinsey report states that self-driving trucks will take over nearly 100% of driving jobs, eventually. The only question is when the shift will occur.
The Vision
Investors and entrepreneurs alike believe the trucking industry is ripe for disruption. Consider that medium and heavy-duty trucks produce 23% of greenhouse gas emissions generated in the transportation sector, while a third of the $700 billion industry’s revenue goes to paying drivers. Following are some points to consider:
Cost Reduction
Proponents of self-driving trucks say that they will help reduce costs. Aside from trucking’s staggering driver payroll, human drivers also are often heavy on the pedal and achieve sub-optimal mileage. And with an 81% turnover rate, there are plenty of inexperienced operators. Autonomous trucks could reduce fuel consumption by an estimated 10%.
A new concept called platooning is also being developed. Technologies such as GPS and Wifi would help synchronize trucks, allowing them to safely follow close behind each other. This would provide them with the opportunity to reduce wind drag, an approach which could cut fuel expenditure by 20%. The commercialization of platooning is expected to be closer at hand than for self-driving trucks. Another important benefit of removing drivers from behind the wheel would be better asset utilization. Without hours of duty restrictions, trucks would be able to run around the clock.
Improved Safety
Automation offers the potential to significantly improve road safety. Large trucks are involved in 330,000 accidents every year in the U.S. There were 4,067 fatalities from accidents involving 18 wheelers in 2015, while another 116,000 people were injured. It is worth noting that various degrees of “Advanced Driver Assistance Systems” (ADAS) technology is already widely used in the form of tools such as cruise control, anti-lock brake systems and electronic stability control (ESC), as well as collision and blind spot sensors.
Environmental and Social Benefits
As mentioned above, trucks generate almost one-quarter of transport sector greenhouse gas emissions, and so more efficient operation and the utilization of platooning will reap substantial CO2 reductions. Technology proponents also point out that long distance trucking is a grueling profession. As a result, the industry currently faces a 48,000 driver shortage. Proponents say that self-driving trucks will result in higher skilled, better paying jobs. Remaining driving jobs are more likely to be ones where an operator gets to sleep in her own bed at night, shuttling rigs from the highway to the local distribution center.
The Technology
Autonomous trucks are using various technologies in different configurations, including LIDAR, radar, ultrasonic, passive visual, GPS and Wifi. Each of them has limitations on its own. Here is a summary of four of the key navigation tools.
LIDAR
(Light Detection and Ranging) utilizes lasers to gauge distances and identify objects with a range of up to 200 meters in light or in dark conditions. Because it relies on light wavelengths, it does not perform well in conditions of rain, dust or fog. LIDAR is also very expensive, but several companies are working to reduce its cost.
Radar
Radar makes use of radio waves to identify objects, as well as to calculate velocity and angles. It performs better in rain and snow than LIDAR, and is better at identifying objects at close range.
Ultrasonic Systems
Ultrasonic sound waves determine the distance to an object based on the time it takes for waves to return to the source. They are valuable for close-range detection in a variety of weather conditions, but range is limited.
Passive Visual Technology
This camera-based technology is better at detecting colors, contrast and resolution than other technologies. Cameras are utilized in conjunction with image-recognition algorithms. They have a long range in good light conditions.
Current Outlook
When a tractor trailer of Anheuser-Busch beer was pulled 120 miles down Colorado’s I-25 last October by a self-driving truck, the public got its first glimpse of an autonomous rig making a commercial shipment. There was still a driver onboard to monitor operations, and the trip was scheduled for a quiet early morning on a clear day. A police escort also took part.
Several companies are now undertaking varying degrees of testing. Waymo recently started autonomous truck road tests with a heavy truck in California. And in Europe, Volvo has been testing self-drive technology in off-road trucks for mining, as well as for garbage trucks.
For now, the self-driving technologies are largely being pitched as tools that can aid drivers, rather than replace them. Highway driving is less complex than navigating local road systems, and that is being initially targeted as the best fit. Drivers would still have a role for local delivery, checking loads, performing paperwork and other tasks.
One startup in the field makes no bones about leaving onboard truck drivers out of the equation, however. Einride, a Swedish Company, has designed an electric truck that does not have cab space or windows. It has been described as a giant freezer. Their vehicle can be controlled by remote drivers in a control center, or autonomously.
Longer term, the vision of self-driving trucks remains the ultimate prize. The autonomous truck opportunity is being chased by technology companies such as Waymo and Uber, various startups, as well as existing motor vehicle manufacturers including Daimler, Volkswagen, Volvo and Tesla.
How soon we get there is a matter of debate. McKinsey forecasted it could be as early as 2032, or as late as 2066. The technologies that are being developed, however, will undoubtedly find more immediate application in enhancing Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in new trucks or in retrofit kits for existing vehicles. The race to perfect the self-driving truck should see positive spinoffs in the form of driving enhancements that will make driving easier, brightening prospects for the driver-depleted trucking industry along the way.
